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Sunday, November 7, 2010

7 Reasons Why Microsoft's Kinect Will Succeed


Microsoft's Xbox 360 Kinect will be a smashing success.  In one years time we will forget about the PlayStation Move and Nintendo's Wii will be stumbling to figure out how to make the next Wii to reclaim the success they once had.  Why do I say this?  Because Kinect is advanced motion technology that doesn't require silly glowing orbs to work.

Ok that might be a strong statement, but in my first of two posts I will discuss 7 reasons why I think Microsoft's Kinect will be a success.  I will shortly follow this with 7 reasons why I think it will fail, but for now click the link to see my 7 success reasons.

  • MICROSOFT'S KINECT'S MOTION CONTROL IS ADVANCED AND UNIQUE
Unlike the Wii and PlayStation Move, Kinect does not use a controller for motion control.  Instead it uses and array of three cameras to capture full body motion control.  Kinect is still able to capture a users arm movements like the Wii and the Move, but unlike those two, Kinect can also sense movement of the users torso, head, legs, and full body.  This allows for a more immersive experience for the user and more freedom for developers when implementing motion control in their games.  I should note that PlayStation Move can also do a bit of head tracking.

  • ONCE DEVELOPERS HAVE MORE TIME, GAMES WILL BE AWESOME
I am not sure when Microsoft allowed developers access to Kinect or how many developers they even allowed to have access.  But it is pretty telling that it was not much of either since most of the games at launch are from Microsoft's first and second party developers.  Kinect is a new platform, and like any new platform is takes time to learn the in's and out's of the system.  Once all developers have a couple of months, gamers will start to see the full potential of Kinect.

  • NON-GAMING FEATURES ARE JUST SCRATCHING THE SURFACE
At release Kinect has limited capabilities in the non-gaming aspects of the Xbox 360 platform.  You can control some aspects of the Xbox Dashboard with motion and voice but not all of it.  The same applies to some of the other areas of the Dashboard such as ESPN, Zune, and Last.fm.  Once Kinect becomes fully ingrained in the Xbox platform, it will revolutionize how users interact with not just game consoles but other platforms that connect to the TV.  It will be the same revolution as the introduction of multi-touch to smart phones.  Plus people just want to be able to use Kinect with Netflix.

  • TREATING KINECT AS A SEPARATE PLATFORM IS WIN WIN
Not sure if you noticed but Microsoft's Kinect marketing is very different then the way Sony markets the PlayStation Move.  PlayStation Move commercials are exactly the same as all the other PlayStation 3 commercials.  The Move commercials are just another one in the overall PlayStation 3 marketing campaign.  With Kinect, Microsoft is treating it as a completely different platform, and as such is marketing it that way.  This could allow Microsoft to get both the casual and hardcore/traditional gaming market segments.  By treating Kinect as a platform for casual gamers Microsoft can go after the expanded gaming segment while not angering their traditional user base by solely focusing on casual games.  This will allow Microsoft to keep their lead in the traditional gaming segment while going for the lead in the casual segment and overall gaming market.  All of this while still selling one console that uses the universal online platform Xbox Live.  That is a lot of revenue streams for Microsoft.

  • FACIAL RECOGNITION IS COOL, BUT WHAT ELSE CAN IT RECOGNIZE?

One of the Kinect's features is the ability to log a gamer into their Xbox Live profile by using facial recognition.  That is pretty cool, but if it could recognize something as complicated and varied as a person's face, what else can it recognize?  I think there is potential for Microsoft and others to make physical peripherals that work with Kinect.  This could really expand the gameplay options for Kinect and could be a way for Microsoft to further compete against Move and Wii if they start losing any ground.  Microsoft might not market Kinect that way today with "You Are the Controller," but I could see them adding these type of gameplay opportunities in the future.


  • MOTION AND VOICE GAMEPLAY IS A WINNING COMBO

While Kinect's main focus is motion gameplay, many reviewers noted that combining the motion gameplay with Kinect's capable voice control could be powerful.  While Kinect might not be able to capture users movements perfectly yet, it does seem like it can capture someone's voice pretty accurately.  By having games that incorporated voice commands more, Microsoft will be able to incorporate precise controls into gameplay.  The PlayStation Move also has the ability to do this too, but I think that just lowers the risk for third party developers since they will be able to make games that use motion and voice control for both Kinect and Move.


  • KINECT IS NOT PERFECT TODAY, BUT IT WILL BE TOMORROW
Judging from reviews, Kinect is not perfect today.  Players movements are not perfectly captured, it needs a decent amount of room, and there are some interference issues that need to be worked out.  But you know what, the Xbox 360 wasn't perfect from day one either.   Microsoft has shown that with the Xbox, they are capable of making software updates that really expand and improve the platform.  The perfect example of this is the Xbox 360 Dashboard.  Over the years Microsoft has improved the user interface and has also added things like Netflix, Last.fm, Facebook, Zune Marketplace, full game downloads, and instant 1080p movie streaming.  They will be able to fix the issues Kinect has today, but will also be able to add new capabilities that will enhance the gamer's experience.

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